Marcian Lee

Lux Research, United States

Title: The Investment Case for Advanced Plastic Recycling

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Biography

Marcian Lee, Ph.D., is an analyst at Lux Research, where he leads the company’s in-depth research on advanced plastic recycling technologies. Based in Singapore, Marcian plays a critical role in evaluating and advising on innovative approaches to plastic waste valorization, providing strategic guidance to senior leaders in chemicals, oil and gas, and related industries. His penetrating insights are influential in advancing sustainable practices across these sectors, with his research cited in respected media platforms like Waste Today and Trellis.

Prior to joining Lux, Marcian served as a research fellow at the Hewlett Packard (HP)-Nanyang Technological University Digital Manufacturing Corporate Lab. Marcian holds a Ph.D. in mechanical and manufacturing engineering from the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT), where his work focused on the development of graphene–polyamide-6 composites for the additive manufacturing of electromagnetic-interference-shielding components. He also holds a BEng in aerospace engineering from RMIT.

Abstract

This presentation examines whether advanced plastic recycling has reached a viable inflection point for investment. Historically constrained by a “chicken-and-egg” dynamic between feedstock supply and recycling capacity, the industry is now beginning to break this stalemate, with installed capacity growing and policy-driven demand emerging. 

Using Lux Research’s proprietary methodology, we evaluate the risk-return profile of a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) pyrolysis plant. By combining real-world plant data with Monte Carlo simulations, it assesses key economic drivers such as CAPEX, OPEX, and product pricing, alongside uncertainties tied to innovation maturity. The analysis shows that under current conditions, expected returns remain weak, with negative or marginal IRRs in base-case scenarios.

However, scenario analysis reveals that policy mechanisms—especially recycled content mandates—can significantly improve project economics by enabling premium pricing for pyrolysis oil. Conversely, stricter regulatory frameworks, such as fuel-exempt mass balancing, may undermine investment viability. Ultimately, the findings highlight that product price, driven largely by policy, is the dominant lever shaping returns, outweighing feedstock or technology cost improvements.

The presentation concludes that while advanced recycling is not yet broadly attractive as a financial investment, it may hold strategic value under the right conditions. Investors must carefully assess regulatory trajectories, market readiness, and their own risk appetite to identify where and when opportunities may emerge.